Insights

In the past year, we have had several clients retiring from their professional careers. Most were clients for more than five years, and some for several decades. Back in 2019, nearly all of them asked the same question:“Can I retire in five years with our $1 million portfolio?”

The US economy is still recovering from the significant whipsaw impact caused by the pandemic and related government restrictions on businesses and society. Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the year-over-year (YoY) increase in hourly earnings increased 3.6% from the same time in 2025 and is still ahead of rising costs. At the same time, unemployment has remained at historic lows for the past four years, with last week’s Unemployment rate at 4.3%.

In 2022, the Federal Reserve launched an aggressive series of rate hikes to curb inflation at levels the U.S. had not experienced since 1979. The era of sub 3% 30-year fixed mortgages effectively ended, with rates climbing from below 3% to over 8% in less than 18 months, which are rates many people alive today may never see again.

Most major U.S. market indices have staged an impressive rebound since establishing their lows on March 30, 2026. The S&P 500 has now moved back into a technically solid bullish trend, with its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages all turning higher. This is an important indication that both short-term momentum and longer-term market direction have shifted back in favor of the bulls.