Insights

Every bull market comes with a chorus of commentators predicting its end, but what if all that bad news is exactly what keeps the rally alive?

During every bull market, there is no shortage of commentators predicting the imminent end of the rally. These bearish forecasts often receive significant media attention, fueled by concerns over geopolitical conflicts, including the war with Iran, inflation, tariffs, rising living costs, a sluggish residential real estate market, elevated gasoline prices, high mortgage rates, and the latest comments or policies coming from Washington.

In the past year, we have had several clients retiring from their professional careers. Most were clients for more than five years, and some for several decades. Back in 2019, nearly all of them asked the same question:“Can I retire in five years with our $1 million portfolio?”

The US economy is still recovering from the significant whipsaw impact caused by the pandemic and related government restrictions on businesses and society. Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the year-over-year (YoY) increase in hourly earnings increased 3.6% from the same time in 2025 and is still ahead of rising costs. At the same time, unemployment has remained at historic lows for the past four years, with last week’s Unemployment rate at 4.3%.

In 2022, the Federal Reserve launched an aggressive series of rate hikes to curb inflation at levels the U.S. had not experienced since 1979. The era of sub 3% 30-year fixed mortgages effectively ended, with rates climbing from below 3% to over 8% in less than 18 months, which are rates many people alive today may never see again.