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Anton's Weekly UPdate on markets, the consumer, jobs, housing, and the Fed
The 2020 pandemic prompted panicked policymakers to implement extreme restrictions on societies around the world. These regulations resulted in plummeting consumer sentiment about the economy that reverberated with histo
Anton Bayer · August 21, 2024 · 5 min read
A summer market correction is well underway after a strong first half of 2024 for the stock market. Over time the S&P 500 on average increases about 70% of the time with the remaining periods with down cycles referenced
Anton Bayer · July 30, 2024 · 5 min read
There are three primary topics of conversation occurring in the broader market right now: interest rate direction, last week’s pullback in the S&P500, and the presidential campaigns. Let’s take a look at them one by one,
Nyle Bayer · July 23, 2024 · 5 min read
The holy grail for companies is achieving maximum productivity growth at the most profitable revenue ratio. For publicly traded companies, investors wait to hear each quarter the changes in the company’s top-line revenue
Anton Bayer · July 17, 2024 · 5 min read
Since the stock market bottomed on October 14, 2022, the major indices have rallied significantly. During these past 20 months, the tech-based NASDAQ index has soared 78.3% followed by a large-cap S&P 500 index up 55.53%
Anton Bayer · July 10, 2024 · 5 min read
We added Nvidia (NVDA) to our Growth & Income and Growth model portfolios early last year. Since then, the stock price has soared. This year institutional investors continued to add NVDA to their portfolios on bullish fo
Anton Bayer · June 26, 2024 · 4 min read
The US Census Bureau released last week the advance projection May report of the Index of Economic Activity (IDEA) that includes information how consumers changed their spending last month. The advance report is released
Anton Bayer · June 20, 2024 · 6 min read
In 2013 we added Home Depot (HD) to our portfolios as builders were re-engaging their development projects following the 2008 Great Recession. Homeowners were also increasing their spending on their homes either preparin
Anton Bayer · June 12, 2024 · 7 min read
When a tsunami worldwide event like the recent coronavirus plague is followed by panic governments shutting down their society, you can expect years and sometimes decades before its impact is mostly neutralized. I say mo
Anton Bayer · June 5, 2024 · 5 min read
Last week the Institute for Social Research (ISR) of the University of Michigan released their monthly report on consumer sentiment. The monthly report and its index are based on the responses from US households by phone
Anton Bayer · May 29, 2024 · 5 min read
In March 2022, Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, and his Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) commenced with a rate hike campaign to reduce a quickly rising inflation rate. Not a moment too soon as inflation as me
Anton Bayer · May 22, 2024 · 4 min read
Today the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released their April report of the small business optimism index. The index ticked up to 89.7 from 88.5 reading in March which was ahead of general Econoday fo
Anton Bayer · May 15, 2024 · 5 min read
Yesterday the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its monthly report on consumer income and spending. The report indicated that personal income rose 0.3% and has increased each month now for 24 consecutive months which
Anton Bayer · May 1, 2024 · 4 min read
The US Census Bureau reported today that March housing starts plummeted 14.7% month over month (MoM) to 1.321 million. This reverses February MoM gain with March’s new starts the lowest since August 2023 and biggest decl
Anton Bayer · April 24, 2024 · 4 min read
As we have discussed in past Weekly Briefs, the core of the U.S. economy is consumer spending, which represents 66% of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is significant as the GDP is the basis of defining the gene
Anton Bayer · April 17, 2024 · 5 min read
The media and analysts are back to the good news is bad news routine. Meaning that when economic news is positive the bad news is the Federal Reserve may not be lowering interest soon. The media and analysts are adamant
Anton Bayer · April 10, 2024 · 6 min read
Businesses use fuel from the products they receive from manufacturing companies that feed the American engine. It’s a symbiotic relationship of companies selling goods to their customers as manufacturers are producing an
Anton Bayer · April 3, 2024 · 5 min read
The start of new construction housing increased 10.7% to 1.521 million units month-over-month to an annualized rate in February after falling 12.3% in January. The February increase was well above the consensus of 1.449
Anton Bayer · March 20, 2024 · 4 min read
Although many companies are experiencing record sales with the stocks hitting all-time highs (e.g., Nvidia), the small business sector seems to be missing the party altogether. For several years, we have been writing abo
Anton Bayer · March 13, 2024 · 5 min read
A January 2024 Gallup Poll indicated that Americans mentioning the economy as a key issue has risen almost three-fold since 2019. In the category of Economic Problems, 76.7% was attributed to “Economy in General” and “Hi
Anton Bayer · March 7, 2024 · 7 min read
For general education only, not individualized tax or investment advice. Up Capital Management is a Registered Investment Adviser.