Markets and Economy, Page 5
Anton's Weekly UPdate on markets, the consumer, jobs, housing, and the Fed
More in Markets and Economy
Markets and EconomySmall Business Owners Still See HeadwindsThe National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its Small Business Optimism US Index today indicating it has decreased to 91.2 in August. This breaks the improving trend since dropping to a multi-year lowMarkets and EconomySummer Stock Market Selloff ContinuesAfter a long Labor Day weekend, investors started the first trading day of September by selling. The reason floated out by the main media for today’s selloff is investors skittish about the S&P Global US Manufacturing PuMarkets and EconomySummer Pause and ReboundAs we forecast in June, the US stock market to enter a period of weakness with stock prices declining during the summer after the major indices had a solid rally in the first half of 2024. The reasons for summer weaknessMarkets and EconomyConsumers’ Pandemic HangoverThe 2020 pandemic prompted panicked policymakers to implement extreme restrictions on societies around the world. These regulations resulted in plummeting consumer sentiment about the economy that reverberated with histoMarkets and EconomySummer Market CorrectionA summer market correction is well underway after a strong first half of 2024 for the stock market. Over time the S&P 500 on average increases about 70% of the time with the remaining periods with down cycles referenced Markets and EconomyInterest Rates, S&P500 Pullback, and Presidential Campaign ImpactsThere are three primary topics of conversation occurring in the broader market right now: interest rate direction, last week’s pullback in the S&P500, and the presidential campaigns. Let’s take a look at them one by one,Markets and EconomyHow Can Companies Be More Productive?The holy grail for companies is achieving maximum productivity growth at the most profitable revenue ratio. For publicly traded companies, investors wait to hear each quarter the changes in the company’s top-line revenueMarkets and EconomyWhen to SellSince the stock market bottomed on October 14, 2022, the major indices have rallied significantly. During these past 20 months, the tech-based NASDAQ index has soared 78.3% followed by a large-cap S&P 500 index up 55.53%Markets and EconomyNvidia Rally ContinuesWe added Nvidia (NVDA) to our Growth & Income and Growth model portfolios early last year. Since then, the stock price has soared. This year institutional investors continued to add NVDA to their portfolios on bullish foMarkets and EconomyWinners and Losers in May Retail SalesThe US Census Bureau released last week the advance projection May report of the Index of Economic Activity (IDEA) that includes information how consumers changed their spending last month. The advance report is releasedMarkets and EconomyConsumers Are Changing Where They SpendIn 2013 we added Home Depot (HD) to our portfolios as builders were re-engaging their development projects following the 2008 Great Recession. Homeowners were also increasing their spending on their homes either preparinMarkets and EconomyUS Manufacturers Slowing as Global GrowsWhen a tsunami worldwide event like the recent coronavirus plague is followed by panic governments shutting down their society, you can expect years and sometimes decades before its impact is mostly neutralized. I say moMarkets and EconomyConsumer Are Uncertain of the FutureLast week the Institute for Social Research (ISR) of the University of Michigan released their monthly report on consumer sentiment. The monthly report and its index are based on the responses from US households by phoneMarkets and EconomyStock Market Rolls OnIn March 2022, Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, and his Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) commenced with a rate hike campaign to reduce a quickly rising inflation rate. Not a moment too soon as inflation as meMarkets and EconomySmall Business Owners Still GlumToday the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released their April report of the small business optimism index. The index ticked up to 89.7 from 88.5 reading in March which was ahead of general Econoday foMarkets and EconomyConsumers Earning and Spending MoreYesterday the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its monthly report on consumer income and spending. The report indicated that personal income rose 0.3% and has increased each month now for 24 consecutive months which Markets and EconomyNavigating Housing Through High Interest RatesThe US Census Bureau reported today that March housing starts plummeted 14.7% month over month (MoM) to 1.321 million. This reverses February MoM gain with March’s new starts the lowest since August 2023 and biggest declMarkets and EconomyRebound in Retail SalesAs we have discussed in past Weekly Briefs, the core of the U.S. economy is consumer spending, which represents 66% of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is significant as the GDP is the basis of defining the geneMarkets and EconomyMore Good News, DarnThe media and analysts are back to the good news is bad news routine. Meaning that when economic news is positive the bad news is the Federal Reserve may not be lowering interest soon. The media and analysts are adamant Markets and EconomyMovement of MoneyBusinesses use fuel from the products they receive from manufacturing companies that feed the American engine. It’s a symbiotic relationship of companies selling goods to their customers as manufacturers are producing an
For general education only, not individualized tax or investment advice. Up Capital Management is a Registered Investment Adviser.