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Anton's Weekly UPdate on markets, the consumer, jobs, housing, and the Fed
This rally, since the start of the year, has been given many names. The most consistent is the “Rally Everyone Hates.” The primary reason is last year’s doom-sayers assured us of a recession if the Federal Reserve implem
Anton Bayer · August 17, 2023 · 5 min read
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) issued yesterday their monthly report based on a survey among small business owners. The chart from this report illustrates the roller coaster of emotions among busi
Anton Bayer · August 9, 2023 · 5 min read
Greetings! Today, we're taking a thorough examination of the evolving financial landscape, focusing on key developments and their impact on your retirement journey.
Anton Bayer · July 26, 2023 · 3 min read
In advance of 2023, the recession drum beats were so loud it was deafening. Market pundits warned that as the Fed raised interest rates, it was just a matter of time before the economy entered a recession.
Anton Bayer · July 12, 2023 · 5 min read
We have mentioned in past Weekly Briefs about the dynamics of our current multi-speed economy. Some sectors are doing (travel, retail, hospitality) while others are not doing so well (lending, banking, and commercial off
Anton Bayer · June 30, 2023 · 5 min read
Stocks climbed last week as reassuring inflation data boosted investor hopes that the rate-hike cycle was nearing an end amid fresh economic data pointing to continued economic resilience.
Anton Bayer · June 21, 2023 · 4 min read
In sports there are the subjective analysts and then those that take a technical approach to evaluate a team’s potential. On a subjective basis, the analyst would focus on attitude, team spirit, and managers ability to c
Anton Bayer · June 15, 2023 · 5 min read
Well, it's quite an unexpected scene right now in the U.S. stock market. Things are pretty mellow, even with the looming debt-ceiling crisis. And would you believe it, we've only got a handful of days left before the U.S
Anton Bayer · May 30, 2023 · 4 min read
Last Friday, the University of Michigan released its Consumer Sentiment bi-monthly report. The report is based on a survey conducted by Consumer Survey Center every two weeks contacting 600 households with 420 responding
Anton Bayer · May 17, 2023 · 3 min read
Since Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, announced early 2022 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate hike campaign to slow inflation, analysts have predicted a recession in 2023. Recessions do not suddenly s
Anton Bayer · May 10, 2023 · 4 min read
The Jerome Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) were in a real bind in 2020. They recognize the danger of ultra-low interest rates leading to hyperinflation. However, the coronavirus pandemic superseded ec
Anton Bayer · April 19, 2023 · 7 min read
I trust you had a pleasant Easter weekend having time with family or friends. This weekend we had our three adult children, their spouses, and their 10 children all together for the first time in ten years. The last time
Anton Bayer · April 12, 2023 · 6 min read
The economic reports of the past several days indicate a slowing economy that continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace. The Federal Reserve's quick response early last year with their rate hike campaign appears to have
Anton Bayer · April 5, 2023 · 5 min read
One indicator to watch to assess the economy's health is by monitoring inventories. Business owners and sales and purchasing managers are watching their business and customer activities to forecast how much inventory the
Anton Bayer · March 29, 2023 · 4 min read
Last week the University of Michigan released its Consumer Sentiment Index for March, which dropped for the first time in four months. This report comes before any recent news about the banking industry, and I would expe
Anton Bayer · March 23, 2023 · 7 min read
It was an extraordinary experience for the years we lived in Cupertino, AKA Silicon Valley. During the late 1990s, neighbors were becoming millionaires and some billionaires overnight when their companies had an Initial
Anton Bayer · March 15, 2023 · 9 min read
On Monday, the Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Released its monthly U.S. Factory Orders report. New orders for U.S. manufactured goods fell 1.6% month-over-month (MoM) in January after a 1.7% rise in D
Anton Bayer · March 8, 2023 · 6 min read
Last week the US Bureau of Economic Analysis released its Q4 2022 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. The economy, after two-quarters of contraction in Q1 and Q2 2022, recovered with economic growth in the remaining two
Anton Bayer · February 28, 2023 · 5 min read
The economy roared back from the 2020 coronavirus shutdown at a pace that surprised all, including the Federal Reserve. To slow the hyperinflation caused by trillions of stimulus money chasing too few goods, the Federal
Anton Bayer · February 15, 2023 · 6 min read
Last week the Midwest endured a weeklong ice storm. Since moving to San Antonio in 2021, we have experienced once in 100-year weather phenomenon every year. Leading into Valentine’s weekend 2021 and a month since moving
Anton Bayer · February 8, 2023 · 6 min read
For general education only, not individualized tax or investment advice. Up Capital Management is a Registered Investment Adviser.