Insights topic
Anton's Weekly UPdate on markets, the consumer, jobs, housing, and the Fed
An uptrend can lose momentum for many reasons. Sometimes, unexpected political, economic, or global events disrupt the market and reverse direction. Other times, a rally simply becomes overextended, with investors search
Anton Bayer · March 25, 2026 · 7 min read
On June 12–13 of last year, Israel carried out large-scale airstrikes against Iran, targeting nuclear facilities, military bases, and senior commanders and scientists. Dozens of sites were neutralized, and several top Ir
Anton Bayer · March 18, 2026 · 4 min read
The United States, while ranking third in population, generates nearly twice the annual GDP of both China and the Eurozone.
Anton Bayer · March 4, 2026 · 4 min read
As a lifelong investor and portfolio manager for the past 28 years, I can confidently say the stock market has bipolar disorder.
Anton Bayer · February 18, 2026 · 7 min read
Over the past three days, we’ve received reports on the state of consumer sentiment and small business confidence. The results show that both groups are slowly becoming more optimistic about the future, though improvemen
Anton Bayer · February 11, 2026 · 8 min read
Several years ago, Simon Maierhofer, editor and founder of iSpy ETF Newsletter, introduced me to a combination of three barometers that have had interesting results in predicting the future S&P 500 performance of the new
Anton Bayer · February 4, 2026 · 5 min read
Since 1972, the University of Michigan has surveyed approximately 1,000 households each month to produce its Consumer Sentiment Index. The index ranges from 0, representing extreme pessimism, to 110, reflecting peak opti
Anton Bayer · January 28, 2026 · 6 min read
Last year, we began adding gold and silver mining companies to the Up Capital Model portfolios. I give credit to the client, Annie Alexander, who first introduced the idea of miner stocks to me early in 2025 as a develop
Anton Bayer · January 21, 2026 · 6 min read
Many years ago, Simon Maierhofer, founder and editor of the iSpy ETF Newsletter, introduced me to a powerful market framework. Simon is one of the most analytically rigorous market observers I’ve ever met, with a unique
Anton Bayer · January 14, 2026 · 4 min read
It is only six days into the new year, and already the holidays feel like a distant memory. Our family welcomed the New Year on the Texas coast near Port Aransas. Forecasts warned of dangerous cold as an Arctic blast pus
Anton Bayer · January 7, 2026 · 5 min read
The predictability of investor behavior can feel almost tedious to anyone who closely follows market activity. Major U.S. indices are wrapping up a third consecutive calendar year of double-digit annual gains, with the S
Anton Bayer · December 17, 2025 · 8 min read
Engineers are remarkably gifted at creating solutions to problems no one knew existed—at least, not the average person. Take the humble public restroom. Once upon a time, we all managed just fine with the trusty twisty-k
Anton Bayer · November 12, 2025 · 8 min read
If you missed the market rotation mid-last year to gold and precious metal miners, you may be asking if it’s too late to jump on. Recognizing the precious metal positive trend, we started adding gold and silver miners in
Anton Bayer · October 29, 2025 · 5 min read
Investors are enjoying a robust stock market rally with NASDAQ and possibly the S&P 500 completing three consecutive years of 20%+ annual gains. Meanwhile, Berkshire Hathaway has amassed a record-breaking cash reserve, r
Anton Bayer · October 22, 2025 · 7 min read
Small business owners have endured a difficult four years. Before the global COVID-19 pandemic, many were benefiting from economic growth between 2017 and 2020. But when the pandemic struck, supply chains became strained
Anton Bayer · October 14, 2025 · 5 min read
My selection of economic topics to write about is getting narrowed as multiple reporting Federal agencies have stopped releasing economic data due to the Federal government shutdown. However, just before the government s
Anton Bayer · October 8, 2025 · 4 min read
Unlike most other countries, the US GDP of economic activity is predominantly driven by consumer spending. Consumer sentiment levels should provide a forecast of rising or falling future spending if the theory that disco
Anton Bayer · October 1, 2025 · 5 min read
Last week, we reviewed the changes in prices from manufacturers and producers. Based on the reports from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the annual increase of the Producer Price Index (PPI) declined in August to 2.6%
Anton Bayer · September 24, 2025 · 6 min read
To determine the future costs of consumer goods, one needs to monitor the costs to producers. If producer costs go up, then it is only a matter of time until your costs increase at the retail level.
Anton Bayer · September 17, 2025 · 6 min read
After the Federal Reserve raised its discount rate 500% in 2022 and 2023, taking mortgage rates up with it, housing activity has hit a brick wall. Since mid-2023, prospective home buyers have remained on the sidelines, h
Anton Bayer · August 27, 2025 · 5 min read
For general education only, not individualized tax or investment advice. Up Capital Management is a Registered Investment Adviser.