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Anton's Weekly UPdate on markets, the consumer, jobs, housing, and the Fed
In 2013 we added Home Depot (HD) to our portfolios as builders were re-engaging their development projects following the 2008 Great Recession. Homeowners were also increasing their spending on their homes either preparin
Anton Bayer · June 12, 2024 · 7 min read
When a tsunami worldwide event like the recent coronavirus plague is followed by panic governments shutting down their society, you can expect years and sometimes decades before its impact is mostly neutralized. I say mo
Anton Bayer · June 5, 2024 · 5 min read
Last week the Institute for Social Research (ISR) of the University of Michigan released their monthly report on consumer sentiment. The monthly report and its index are based on the responses from US households by phone
Anton Bayer · May 29, 2024 · 5 min read
Since most people reading this Brief are employed or are employers themselves, watching the Monster.com reports is probably not a top priority. However, the labor market is a key focus for the Federal Reserve as it influ
Anton Bayer · February 7, 2024 · 4 min read
Several years ago, Simon Maierhofer, editor and founder of iSpy ETF Newsletter, introduced me to a combination of three barometers that have had interesting results in predicting the future S&P 500 performance of the new
Anton Bayer · January 31, 2024 · 4 min read
Understandably, American sentiment plummeted during the coronavirus worldwide infestation. Consumer sentiment improved in 2021 as more information about the virus became available, along with the slow and inconsistent re
Anton Bayer · January 24, 2024 · 3 min read
It’s officially the part of the new year where you are no longer allowed to tell people “Happy New Year!” but we’ve barely eclipsed the first half of January. The paint is still drying on 2023 but that’s old news. In the
Nyle Bayer · January 17, 2024 · 6 min read
As we reported, for most of last year, we had anticipated the US stock market to recover from its selloff that began on July 28. The media speculated that the selloff was ending a short-lived rally and entering a bear ma
Anton Bayer · January 10, 2024 · 3 min read
CNBC reported today that consumers are spending more this year than in recorded history. Based on a survey conducted by CNBC, Consumers have increased their holiday spending by 31% over 2022 based on their survey. The av
Anton Bayer · December 20, 2023 · 6 min read
For years now, I have enjoyed taking people flying and introducing the peaceful, miraculous experience of flight. However, from the moment I take off, I think principally of one key aspect of the flight, and that is the
Anton Bayer · December 13, 2023 · 4 min read
The seasonal increase in job openings is typically a great time for students and entry-level workers to get jobs with short-term income opportunities. Unfortunately for most businesses, finding qualified employees has be
Anton Bayer · December 6, 2023 · 5 min read
The U.S. stock market, often a measure of economic health, has shown a noteworthy uptick just in time for Thanksgiving gratitude. The S&P 500 index, a benchmark for U.S. equities, has increased by 2.2% in the past week.
Anton Bayer · November 22, 2023 · 4 min read
Last week, the major indices had their best week this year, with the major indices rising from 4.6% to 6.77%. Below is a chart of the returns of the indices last week:
Anton Bayer · November 8, 2023 · 4 min read
There is a peculiar relationship between investors, economic news, and the major media. Investors are trying to predict the future of the stock market based on economic data being released, and the major media, whose onl
Anton Bayer · October 18, 2023 · 7 min read
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its August report surveying small business owners on their views of their business and the economy. The NFIB index reading came in a little below the previo
Anton Bayer · October 10, 2023 · 4 min read
It appears investors are increasing their caution in buying stocks since the major indices peaked for the year high on July 31. Today's decline of the S&P 500 puts the index just 0.1% above its 200 Day Moving Average (DM
Anton Bayer · September 27, 2023 · 4 min read
It would seem logical to anticipate a close correlation between consumer spending and stock market sentiment. As consumers increase their spending, and especially wealthy consumers, the stock market would presumably rall
Anton Bayer · September 20, 2023 · 6 min read
Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its Consumer Spending report for July, and the result is the consumer engine is strong and building momentum. For the month of July, consumer spending increased year ov
Anton Bayer · September 6, 2023 · 4 min read
If it feels like the financial markets are lurching from news event to news event in recent weeks, you're right. They are. After a strong first half, investors are wondering if the good times are over or if the positive
Anton Bayer · August 30, 2023 · 4 min read
The 2020 pandemic set off a tsunami of labor disruptions and massive reshuffling of the employment market. First, government officials around the nation in 2020 followed health agencies' direction by passing mandates for
Anton Bayer · August 23, 2023 · 6 min read
For general education only, not individualized tax or investment advice. Up Capital Management is a Registered Investment Adviser.