Insights

President John F. Kennedy frequently used the phrase, “A rising tide lifts all boats,” during the early 1960s to illustrate how broad economic growth benefits individuals, businesses, and communities alike. The expression has since become a popular metaphor for periods of economic expansion when favorable conditions help support growth across many sectors of the economy. Read in this UPdate our views of recent developments that incldue the SpaceX IPO, resolution of the Iran war, and lower oil prices.

After a robust recovery that began on April 1, technology stocks finally experienced a modest selloff this past week. While the headlines may feel unsettling, the recent decline appears more like a normal pause within an ongoing Growth and Expansion cycle than the beginning of a major market downturn. As we enter the third quarter, the stock market is approaching what has traditionally been the weakest period of the calendar year. Seasonal weakness alone, however, has never been a reliable predictor of a bear market. More often, it creates opportunities for investors willing to focus on fundamentals rather than short-term headlines. The “Summer Sale” may be underway. For long-term investors, that is not necessarily bad news.

During every bull market, there is no shortage of commentators predicting the imminent end of the rally. These bearish forecasts often receive significant media attention, fueled by concerns over geopolitical conflicts, including the war with Iran, inflation, tariffs, rising living costs, a sluggish residential real estate market, elevated gasoline prices, high mortgage rates, and the latest comments or policies coming from Washington.

In the past year, we have had several clients retiring from their professional careers. Most were clients for more than five years, and some for several decades. Back in 2019, nearly all of them asked the same question:“Can I retire in five years with our $1 million portfolio?”

The US economy is still recovering from the significant whipsaw impact caused by the pandemic and related government restrictions on businesses and society. Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the year-over-year (YoY) increase in hourly earnings increased 3.6% from the same time in 2025 and is still ahead of rising costs. At the same time, unemployment has remained at historic lows for the past four years, with last week’s Unemployment rate at 4.3%.

In 2022, the Federal Reserve launched an aggressive series of rate hikes to curb inflation at levels the U.S. had not experienced since 1979. The era of sub 3% 30-year fixed mortgages effectively ended, with rates climbing from below 3% to over 8% in less than 18 months, which are rates many people alive today may never see again.