BLOG

Rebound in Retail Sales

April 16, 2024

Therefore, to understand the financial health of the US we need to look no further than to monitor the financial health of households and consumers. To simplify the US economic equation is simply:

People working = people spending = economic activity. In this issue we review today’s Retail Sales report and evaluate the financial health of consumers and the probability of continued expansion of the US economy.

More Good News.... Darn

April 9, 2024

The media and analysts are back to the good news is bad news routine. Meaning that when economic news is positive then the potential of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates declines. Read in this Weekly Brief our review of several key benchmarks on the economy and the prospects the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates soon.

Movement of money

April 2, 2024

One economic indicator we monitor is the US Purchasers Manufacturing Index (PMI). This index is based on monthly questionnaire surveys of selected companies that offer an advance indication on month-to-month activity in the private sector economy. This index tracks changes in variables such as production, new orders, stock levels, employment, and prices across manufacturing industries. Historically, when the PMI index is above 50 it represents a growing manufacturing industry and below 50 indicates contraction. Read in this Weekly Brief the results of the recently released PMI report and our analysis of this report.

Future of Financial Services

March 26, 2024

I am at a conference in Denver this week with the focus on the status and future of the financial services industry, economy, and investors. In this Weekly Brief we review observations by keynote speakers and some of our peers on the future of the investment service industry, providers, and the economy. Most interesting were the presentations on the future use of AI in managing money and preparing content.

Housing and the Stock Market

March 20, 2024

The start of new construction housing increased 10.7% to 1.521 million units month-over-month to an annualized rate in February after falling 12.3% in January. The February increase was well above the consensus of 1.449 million units in the Econoday’s survey of forecasters. Read in this Weekly Brief our analysis of the improving housing market and whether it is a precursor to the future of the stock market.

WHEN WILL SMALL BUSINESSES JOIN THE PARTY?

Wednesday, March 13, 2024

Although many companies are experiencing record sales with the stocks hitting all-time highs (e.g., Nvidia), the small business sector seems to be missing the party altogether. For several years, we have been writing about the lagging...

WILL IT BE ANOTHER DEJA VU WILD RIDE OF HYPER INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES?

Thursday, March 7, 2024

A January 2024 Gallup Poll indicated that Americans mentioning the economy as a key issue has risen almost three-fold since 2019. In the category of Economic Problems, 76.7% was attributed to “Economy in General” and...

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IMPROVING

Wednesday, February 28, 2024

Today, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was released for February. We monitor this economic indicator on consumers and their views of the economy as it provides us with potential insight into the future of consumer

WHAT HAPPEN TO THE RECESSION?

Wednesday, February 21, 2024

The media knows that bad news sells better than good news. Even if the bad news is, at best, a speculation with little supporting evidence. A case in point is the relentless storyline in 2021 and 2022 of a pending recession if the...

THE CHANGING AMERICAN POPULATION

Thursday, February 15, 2024

This year, there are more people turning 65 years old in America than at any other time in history. Baby Boomers, those born between 1946 and 1964, are now between the ages of 60 and 78, and they are turning 65 at a rate of 11,300 per...

HOT LABOR MARKET

Wednesday, February 7, 2024

Since most people reading this Brief are employed or are employers themselves, watching the Monster.com reports is probably not a top priority. However, the labor market is a key focus for the Federal Reserve as it influences their...

SANTA CLAUS PREDICTOR

Wednesday, January 31, 2024

Several years ago, Simon Maierhofer, editor and founder of iSpy ETF Newsletter, introduced me to a combination of three barometers that have had interesting results in predicting the future S&P 500 performance of the new year. These...

AMERICANS FEELING GOOD!

Wednesday, January 24, 2024

Understandably, American sentiment plummeted during the coronavirus worldwide infestation. Consumer sentiment improved in 2021 as more information about the virus became available, along with the slow and inconsistent relaxing of...

US ECONOMY ENDS WELL, NOW ON TO 2024

Wednesday, January 10, 2024

As we reported, for most of last year, we had anticipated the US stock market to recover from its selloff that began on July 28. The media speculated that the selloff was ending a short-lived rally and entering a bear market downtrend...

CHRISTMAS MEMORIES

Wednesday, December 27, 2023

Yesterday was Christmas, and it seems like it was yesterday already. We are fortunate to have seven of our ten grandkids living close to us. As a result, we had a full house with all-day activities with kids and adults that concluded...

CONSUMERS SPENDING MORE IN HISTORY

Wednesday, December 20, 2023

CNBC reported today that consumers are spending more this year than in recorded history. Based on a survey conducted by CNBC, Consumers have increased their holiday spending by 31% over 2022 based on their survey. The average...

SOFT LANDINGS

Wednesday, December 13, 2023

For years now, I have enjoyed taking people flying and introducing the peaceful, miraculous experience of flight. However, from the moment I take off, I think principally of one key aspect of the flight, and that is the landing. My...

HELP WANTED FOR CHRISTMAS AND BEYOND!

Wednesday, December 6, 2023

The seasonal increase in job openings is typically a great time for students and entry-level workers to get jobs with short-term income opportunities. Unfortunately for most businesses, finding qualified employees has been a challenge...

Seasoning For the Sage Investor: What's on the Market's Menu?

Wednesday, November 22, 2023

The U.S. stock market, often a measure of economic health, has shown a noteworthy uptick just in time for Thanksgiving gratitude. The S&P 500 index, a benchmark for U.S. equities, has increased by 2.2...

Holidays are Here!

Wednesday, November 16, 2023

Now that Halloween is over, the winter holidays have officially started. Although Home Depot, Walmart, Target, Lowes, and every other box store thought the Christmas season started in August. When I w...

Market Rebound!

Wednesday, November 8, 2023

Last week, the major indices had their best week this year, with the major indices rising from 4.6% to 6.77%. Below is a chart of the returns of the indices last week: Notice that for the first time t...

Values & Perceptions

Wednesday, November 1, 2023

The stock market is always moving as investors adjust their portfolios to their perspective of the economy and their stock holdings. The result is the actual value of stocks is rarely held as prices f..

Good News is Bad News Again

Wednesday, October 18, 2023

There is a peculiar relationship between investors, economic news, and the major media. Investors are trying to predict the future of the stock market based on economic...

Small Business Owners Still in Recovery

Wednesday, October 10, 2023

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its August report surveying small business owners on their views of their business and the economy. The NFIB index reading came in a lit..

Fraud Alert

Wednesday, October 4, 2023

It seems the scammers are out in greater force than ever. More alarming is their increasing success in scamming honest people out of their hard-earned money. As a result, I wanted to share with you many True Stories of scams to...

INVESTING FOR THE LONG TERM

Wednesday, September 27, 2023

It appears investors are increasing their caution in buying stocks since the major indices peaked for the year high on July 31. Today's decline of the S&P 500 puts the index just 0.1% above its 200 Day Moving Average (DMA), a typical...

CONSUMERS SPENDING AND INVESTORS SENTIMENT

Wednesday, September 20, 2023

It would seem logical to anticipate a close correlation between consumer spending and stock market sentiment. As consumers increase their spending, and especially wealthy consumers, the stock market would presumably rally. The...

OVERCOMING TRAGEDY

Wednesday, September 13, 2023

One year ago, on September 9, 2022, I was in a horrific private plane crash. No, I wasn’t the pilot, nor did I own the plane. The plane was totaled, and amazingly, my friend, the pilot, and I both survived with slight injuries...

CONSUMER ENGINE STILL STRONG

Wednesday, September 6, 2023

Consumer spending is the economic engine for the US economy and they appear to be in good shape. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that consumer spending has increased 0.8% year over year in July and above expectation of 0.7%.

INVESTORS HOLDING THEIR BREATH

Wednesday, August 30, 2023

If it feels like the financial markets are lurching from news event to news event in recent weeks, you're right. They are. After a strong first half, investors are wondering if the good times are over or if the positive momentum of...

NO HELP WANTED

Wednesday, August 23, 2023

The 2020 pandemic set off a tsunami of labor disruptions and massive reshuffling of the employment market. First, government officials around the nation in 2020 followed health agencies' direction by passing mandates for nearly all...

Good News! Stock market rally finally stalls

Wednesday, August 17, 2023

Good News! Stock Market Rally Finally Stalls This rally, since the start of the year, has been given many names. The most consistent is the “Rally Everyone Hates.” The primary reason is last year’s do..

SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE FUTURE

Wednesday, August 9, 2023

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) issued yesterday their monthly report based on a survey among small business owners. The chart from this report illustrates the roller coaster of emotions among business owners...

MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Wednesday, August 2, 2023

Thinking about Christmas may be a bit early for you, but not for retailers. Executives of all businesses that depend on consumer spending are deep in preparation for this holiday season. These executives are evaluating the prospects...

FINANCIAL RESILIENCE NEAR MARKET HIGHS AND INTEREST RATE SHIFTS

Wednesday, July 26, 2023

Strong growth in equity markets, lower inflation, and Fed's rate hike highlight importance of long-term investing. Stay disciplined, diversify, and seek advice to maximize returns.

THE DISAPPEARING 401K PLAN

Wednesday, July 19, 2023

Biden's SECURE 2.0 enhances retirement savings yet poses double taxation risks. Discover how this impacts your 401(k) and retirement plans in our Weekly Brief.

WAS THERE SUPPOSED TO BE A RECESSION?

Wednesday, July 12, 2023

In advance of 2023, the recession drum beats were so loud it was deafening. Market pundits warned that as the Fed raised interest rates, it was just a matter of time before the economy entered a recession. But it’s July now, and...

CONSUMER DRIVEN ECONOMY POWERS ON

Friday, June 30, 2023

The economy continues to roll on with strong consumer spending leading the charge. Read in this Weekly Brief our view on the economy and stock market along with forecasts for the second half of 2023.

INVESTORS FIND HOPE AS STOCK MARKET RALLIES ON POSITIVE INFLATION DATA

Wednesday, June 21, 2023

Stocks climbed last week as reassuring inflation data boosted investor hopes that the rate-hike cycle was nearing an end amid fresh economic data pointing to continued economic resilience. The Dow Jones...

STOCK MARKET INSIGHTS: BALANCING SUBJECTIVE VS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Thursday, June 15, 2023

In sports there are the subjective analysts and then those that take a technical approach to evaluate a team’s potential. On a subjective basis, the analyst would focus on attitude, team spirit...

A DECADE-LONG DREAM REALIZED: A FINANCIAL ADVISOR'S PILGRIMAGE TO ISRAEL

Tuesday, June 6, 2023

Anton just returned from 10 days in Israel. In this Weekly Brief, he outlines his experiences in the Holy Land and what he learned touring the ancient ruins and other key sites from Israel’s history. Spoiler alert, America is a great country...

CRACKING THE CODE: WHY IS THE STOCK MARKET THRIVING AMIDST DEBT-CEILING UNCERTAINTY?

Tuesday, May 30, 2023

While political uncertainty persists, a handful of companies are driving the market's success, while others struggle. Investors should manage expectations and prioritize a diversified portfolio.

CONSUMERS CONCERNED, FEDS HAPPY

Wednesday, May 17, 2023

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment report reveals a significant drop in consumer confidence, even below 2008 crisis levels. Despite this, the Federal Reserve reportedly welcomes the findings.

TIMING IS EVERYTHING, OR IS IT?

Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Since Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, announced early 2022 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate hike campaign to slow inflation, analysts have predicted a recession in 2023. Recessions do not suddenly sneak up on...

IS US IN RECOVERY OR HEADING INTO A RECESSION?

Wednesday, April 19, 2023

The Jerome Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) were in a real bind in 2020. They recognize the danger of ultra-low interest rates leading to hyperinflation. However, the coronavirus pandemic superseded...

SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS STILL IN RECOVERY MODE

Wednesday, April 12, 2023

I trust you had a pleasant Easter weekend having time with family or friends. This weekend we had our three adult children, their spouses, and their 10 children all together for the first time in ten years. The last time we were...

SLOWING AND GROWING

Wednesday, April 5, 2023

The economic reports of the past several days indicate a slowing economy that continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace. The Federal Reserve's quick response early last year with their rate hike campaign appears to have thwarted an...

BUSINESS INVENTORIES RUNNING LOW

Wednesday, March 29, 2023

One indicator to watch to assess the economy's health is by monitoring inventories. Business owners and sales and purchasing managers are watching their business and customer activities to forecast how much inventory they need to meet...

CONSUMERS EMOTION OUT OF SYNC TO THEIR SPENDING

Thursday, March 23, 2023

Last week the University of Michigan released its Consumer Sentiment Index for March, which dropped for the first time in four months. This report comes before any recent news about the banking industry, and I would expect the next...

LESSONS FROM THE SILICON VALLEY BANK COLLAPSE

Wednesday, March 15, 2023

It was an extraordinary experience for the years we lived in Cupertino, AKA Silicon Valley. During the late 1990s, neighbors were becoming millionaires and some billionaires overnight when their companies had an Initial Public Offering...

FACTORY ORDERS ARE RISING

Wednesday, March 8, 2023

On Monday, the Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Released its monthly U.S. Factory Orders report. New orders for U.S. manufactured goods fell 1.6% month-over-month (MoM) in January after a 1.7% rise in December. This...

MELTING RECESSION WORRIES

Tuesday, February 28, 2023

Last week the US Bureau of Economic Analysis released its Q4 2022 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. The economy, after two-quarters of contraction in Q1 and Q2 2022, recovered with economic growth in the remaining two quarters of...

ECONOMIC LANDING ZONE

Wednesday, February 15, 2023

Analysts predicted a rough economic landing in 2023, partly due to the Federal Reserve's rate hike policy. However, the Fed's assessment was more precise than expected. This Brief examines the chances of a gentle landing or no landing at all...

AFTER THE STORM

Wednesday, February 8, 2023

US economy will recover like spring after winter. Past challenges prove its resilience. Weekly Brief & podcast discuss history and future growth trends...

BENEFITS AT THE BOTTOM

Wednesday, February 1, 2023

There are many benefits of being at the bottom of a market cycle vs. at the top. At the top, when economic and stock market conditions are so favorable that it starts to get scary. One cannot stop wondering when these good times end. I...

US SOFT LANDING

Wednesday, January 25, 2023

Investors have been on pause since early 2022 with their new investments to determine when the Federal Reserve rate hikes will cease. More importantly, they are concerned that higher interest rates will drive the US economy into a...

PLANNING TO WIN

Wednesday, January 18, 2023

It's a new year and a good time to start planning and taking steps towards your goals. This article shares lessons learned on the SEC Football field that helped to outsmart Nick Saban, the coach of Alabama's team.

LISTEN TO THE FED'S

Wednesday, January 11, 2023

In February 2018, Jerome Powell took office as the 16th Chairman of The Federal Reserve. He had a goal to improve the Fed's communication with the investment marketplace. Starting in January 2019, he began holding press conferences...

CONTACT

Office: (916) 520-6420

341 Lincoln Street

Roseville, CA 95678

Anton@upcapitalmgmt.com

Check the background of your financial professional on FINRA's BrokerCheck.

The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. Some of this material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG Suite is not affiliated with the named representative, broker - dealer, state - or SEC - registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.

We take protecting your data and privacy very seriously. As of January 1, 2020 the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA) suggests the following link as an extra measure to safeguard your data: Do not sell my personal information.

The information on this website is the opinion of Up Capital Management and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to invest or to provide management services. Before purchasing any investment, a prospective investor should consult with its own investment, accounting, legal, and tax advisers to evaluate independently the risks, consequences, and suitability of any investment.