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Housing Navigating Through High Interest Rates
April 23 2024
The US Census Bureau reported today that March housing starts plummeted 14.7% month over month (MoM) to 1.321 million. This reverses February MoM gain with March’s new starts the lowest since August 2023 and biggest decline since April 2020. What does this mean for the housing market and will it impact the stock market. Read in this issue our view on this report and the potential impact on the US economy.
Rebound in Retail Sales
April 16, 2024
Therefore, to understand the financial health of the US we need to look no further than to monitor the financial health of households and consumers. To simplify the US economic equation is simply:
People working = people spending = economic activity. In this issue we review today’s Retail Sales report and evaluate the financial health of consumers and the probability of continued expansion of the US economy.
More Good News.... Darn
April 9, 2024
The media and analysts are back to the good news is bad news routine. Meaning that when economic news is positive then the potential of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates declines. Read in this Weekly Brief our review of several key benchmarks on the economy and the prospects the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates soon.
Movement of money
April 2, 2024
One economic indicator we monitor is the US Purchasers Manufacturing Index (PMI). This index is based on monthly questionnaire surveys of selected companies that offer an advance indication on month-to-month activity in the private sector economy. This index tracks changes in variables such as production, new orders, stock levels, employment, and prices across manufacturing industries. Historically, when the PMI index is above 50 it represents a growing manufacturing industry and below 50 indicates contraction. Read in this Weekly Brief the results of the recently released PMI report and our analysis of this report.
Future of Financial Services
March 26, 2024
I am at a conference in Denver this week with the focus on the status and future of the financial services industry, economy, and investors. In this Weekly Brief we review observations by keynote speakers and some of our peers on the future of the investment service industry, providers, and the economy. Most interesting were the presentations on the future use of AI in managing money and preparing content.
Housing and the Stock Market
March 20, 2024
The start of new construction housing increased 10.7% to 1.521 million units month-over-month to an annualized rate in February after falling 12.3% in January. The February increase was well above the consensus of 1.449 million units in the Econoday’s survey of forecasters. Read in this Weekly Brief our analysis of the improving housing market and whether it is a precursor to the future of the stock market.
WHEN WILL SMALL BUSINESSES JOIN THE PARTY?
Wednesday, March 13, 2024
Although many companies are experiencing record sales with the stocks hitting all-time highs (e.g., Nvidia), the small business sector seems to be missing the party altogether. For several years, we have been writing about the lagging...
WILL IT BE ANOTHER DEJA VU WILD RIDE OF HYPER INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES?
Thursday, March 7, 2024
A January 2024 Gallup Poll indicated that Americans mentioning the economy as a key issue has risen almost three-fold since 2019. In the category of Economic Problems, 76.7% was attributed to “Economy in General” and...
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IMPROVING
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Today, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was released for February. We monitor this economic indicator on consumers and their views of the economy as it provides us with potential insight into the future of consumer
WHAT HAPPEN TO THE RECESSION?
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
The media knows that bad news sells better than good news. Even if the bad news is, at best, a speculation with little supporting evidence. A case in point is the relentless storyline in 2021 and 2022 of a pending recession if the...
THE CHANGING AMERICAN POPULATION
Thursday, February 15, 2024
This year, there are more people turning 65 years old in America than at any other time in history. Baby Boomers, those born between 1946 and 1964, are now between the ages of 60 and 78, and they are turning 65 at a rate of 11,300 per...
HOT LABOR MARKET
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Since most people reading this Brief are employed or are employers themselves, watching the Monster.com reports is probably not a top priority. However, the labor market is a key focus for the Federal Reserve as it influences their...
SANTA CLAUS PREDICTOR
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Several years ago, Simon Maierhofer, editor and founder of iSpy ETF Newsletter, introduced me to a combination of three barometers that have had interesting results in predicting the future S&P 500 performance of the new year. These...
AMERICANS FEELING GOOD!
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Understandably, American sentiment plummeted during the coronavirus worldwide infestation. Consumer sentiment improved in 2021 as more information about the virus became available, along with the slow and inconsistent relaxing of...
US ECONOMY ENDS WELL, NOW ON TO 2024
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
As we reported, for most of last year, we had anticipated the US stock market to recover from its selloff that began on July 28. The media speculated that the selloff was ending a short-lived rally and entering a bear market downtrend...
CHRISTMAS MEMORIES
Wednesday, December 27, 2023
Yesterday was Christmas, and it seems like it was yesterday already. We are fortunate to have seven of our ten grandkids living close to us. As a result, we had a full house with all-day activities with kids and adults that concluded...
CONSUMERS SPENDING MORE IN HISTORY
Wednesday, December 20, 2023
CNBC reported today that consumers are spending more this year than in recorded history. Based on a survey conducted by CNBC, Consumers have increased their holiday spending by 31% over 2022 based on their survey. The average...
SOFT LANDINGS
Wednesday, December 13, 2023
For years now, I have enjoyed taking people flying and introducing the peaceful, miraculous experience of flight. However, from the moment I take off, I think principally of one key aspect of the flight, and that is the landing. My...
HELP WANTED FOR CHRISTMAS AND BEYOND!
Wednesday, December 6, 2023
The seasonal increase in job openings is typically a great time for students and entry-level workers to get jobs with short-term income opportunities. Unfortunately for most businesses, finding qualified employees has been a challenge...
Seasoning For the Sage Investor: What's on the Market's Menu?
Wednesday, November 22, 2023
The U.S. stock market, often a measure of economic health, has shown a noteworthy uptick just in time for Thanksgiving gratitude. The S&P 500 index, a benchmark for U.S. equities, has increased by 2.2...
Holidays are Here!
Wednesday, November 16, 2023
Now that Halloween is over, the winter holidays have officially started. Although Home Depot, Walmart, Target, Lowes, and every other box store thought the Christmas season started in August. When I w...
Market Rebound!
Wednesday, November 8, 2023
Last week, the major indices had their best week this year, with the major indices rising from 4.6% to 6.77%. Below is a chart of the returns of the indices last week: Notice that for the first time t...
Values & Perceptions
Wednesday, November 1, 2023
The stock market is always moving as investors adjust their portfolios to their perspective of the economy and their stock holdings. The result is the actual value of stocks is rarely held as prices f..
Good News is Bad News Again
Wednesday, October 18, 2023
There is a peculiar relationship between investors, economic news, and the major media. Investors are trying to predict the future of the stock market based on economic...
Small Business Owners Still in Recovery
Wednesday, October 10, 2023
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its August report surveying small business owners on their views of their business and the economy. The NFIB index reading came in a lit..
Fraud Alert
Wednesday, October 4, 2023
It seems the scammers are out in greater force than ever. More alarming is their increasing success in scamming honest people out of their hard-earned money. As a result, I wanted to share with you many True Stories of scams to...
INVESTING FOR THE LONG TERM
Wednesday, September 27, 2023
It appears investors are increasing their caution in buying stocks since the major indices peaked for the year high on July 31. Today's decline of the S&P 500 puts the index just 0.1% above its 200 Day Moving Average (DMA), a typical...
CONSUMERS SPENDING AND INVESTORS SENTIMENT
Wednesday, September 20, 2023
It would seem logical to anticipate a close correlation between consumer spending and stock market sentiment. As consumers increase their spending, and especially wealthy consumers, the stock market would presumably rally. The...
OVERCOMING TRAGEDY
Wednesday, September 13, 2023
One year ago, on September 9, 2022, I was in a horrific private plane crash. No, I wasn’t the pilot, nor did I own the plane. The plane was totaled, and amazingly, my friend, the pilot, and I both survived with slight injuries...
CONSUMER ENGINE STILL STRONG
Wednesday, September 6, 2023
Consumer spending is the economic engine for the US economy and they appear to be in good shape. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that consumer spending has increased 0.8% year over year in July and above expectation of 0.7%.
INVESTORS HOLDING THEIR BREATH
Wednesday, August 30, 2023
If it feels like the financial markets are lurching from news event to news event in recent weeks, you're right. They are. After a strong first half, investors are wondering if the good times are over or if the positive momentum of...
NO HELP WANTED
Wednesday, August 23, 2023
The 2020 pandemic set off a tsunami of labor disruptions and massive reshuffling of the employment market. First, government officials around the nation in 2020 followed health agencies' direction by passing mandates for nearly all...
Good News! Stock market rally finally stalls
Wednesday, August 17, 2023
Good News! Stock Market Rally Finally Stalls This rally, since the start of the year, has been given many names. The most consistent is the “Rally Everyone Hates.” The primary reason is last year’s do..
SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE FUTURE
Wednesday, August 9, 2023
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) issued yesterday their monthly report based on a survey among small business owners. The chart from this report illustrates the roller coaster of emotions among business owners...
MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY NEW YEAR!
Wednesday, August 2, 2023
Thinking about Christmas may be a bit early for you, but not for retailers. Executives of all businesses that depend on consumer spending are deep in preparation for this holiday season. These executives are evaluating the prospects...
FINANCIAL RESILIENCE NEAR MARKET HIGHS AND INTEREST RATE SHIFTS
Wednesday, July 26, 2023
Strong growth in equity markets, lower inflation, and Fed's rate hike highlight importance of long-term investing. Stay disciplined, diversify, and seek advice to maximize returns.
THE DISAPPEARING 401K PLAN
Wednesday, July 19, 2023
Biden's SECURE 2.0 enhances retirement savings yet poses double taxation risks. Discover how this impacts your 401(k) and retirement plans in our Weekly Brief.
WAS THERE SUPPOSED TO BE A RECESSION?
Wednesday, July 12, 2023
In advance of 2023, the recession drum beats were so loud it was deafening. Market pundits warned that as the Fed raised interest rates, it was just a matter of time before the economy entered a recession. But it’s July now, and...
CONSUMER DRIVEN ECONOMY POWERS ON
Friday, June 30, 2023
The economy continues to roll on with strong consumer spending leading the charge. Read in this Weekly Brief our view on the economy and stock market along with forecasts for the second half of 2023.
INVESTORS FIND HOPE AS STOCK MARKET RALLIES ON POSITIVE INFLATION DATA
Wednesday, June 21, 2023
Stocks climbed last week as reassuring inflation data boosted investor hopes that the rate-hike cycle was nearing an end amid fresh economic data pointing to continued economic resilience. The Dow Jones...
STOCK MARKET INSIGHTS: BALANCING SUBJECTIVE VS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Thursday, June 15, 2023
In sports there are the subjective analysts and then those that take a technical approach to evaluate a team’s potential. On a subjective basis, the analyst would focus on attitude, team spirit...
A DECADE-LONG DREAM REALIZED: A FINANCIAL ADVISOR'S PILGRIMAGE TO ISRAEL
Tuesday, June 6, 2023
Anton just returned from 10 days in Israel. In this Weekly Brief, he outlines his experiences in the Holy Land and what he learned touring the ancient ruins and other key sites from Israel’s history. Spoiler alert, America is a great country...
CRACKING THE CODE: WHY IS THE STOCK MARKET THRIVING AMIDST DEBT-CEILING UNCERTAINTY?
Tuesday, May 30, 2023
While political uncertainty persists, a handful of companies are driving the market's success, while others struggle. Investors should manage expectations and prioritize a diversified portfolio.
CONSUMERS CONCERNED, FEDS HAPPY
Wednesday, May 17, 2023
The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment report reveals a significant drop in consumer confidence, even below 2008 crisis levels. Despite this, the Federal Reserve reportedly welcomes the findings.
TIMING IS EVERYTHING, OR IS IT?
Wednesday, May 10, 2023
Since Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, announced early 2022 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate hike campaign to slow inflation, analysts have predicted a recession in 2023. Recessions do not suddenly sneak up on...
IS US IN RECOVERY OR HEADING INTO A RECESSION?
Wednesday, April 19, 2023
The Jerome Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) were in a real bind in 2020. They recognize the danger of ultra-low interest rates leading to hyperinflation. However, the coronavirus pandemic superseded...
SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS STILL IN RECOVERY MODE
Wednesday, April 12, 2023
I trust you had a pleasant Easter weekend having time with family or friends. This weekend we had our three adult children, their spouses, and their 10 children all together for the first time in ten years. The last time we were...
SLOWING AND GROWING
Wednesday, April 5, 2023
The economic reports of the past several days indicate a slowing economy that continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace. The Federal Reserve's quick response early last year with their rate hike campaign appears to have thwarted an...
BUSINESS INVENTORIES RUNNING LOW
Wednesday, March 29, 2023
One indicator to watch to assess the economy's health is by monitoring inventories. Business owners and sales and purchasing managers are watching their business and customer activities to forecast how much inventory they need to meet...
CONSUMERS EMOTION OUT OF SYNC TO THEIR SPENDING
Thursday, March 23, 2023
Last week the University of Michigan released its Consumer Sentiment Index for March, which dropped for the first time in four months. This report comes before any recent news about the banking industry, and I would expect the next...
LESSONS FROM THE SILICON VALLEY BANK COLLAPSE
Wednesday, March 15, 2023
It was an extraordinary experience for the years we lived in Cupertino, AKA Silicon Valley. During the late 1990s, neighbors were becoming millionaires and some billionaires overnight when their companies had an Initial Public Offering...
FACTORY ORDERS ARE RISING
Wednesday, March 8, 2023
On Monday, the Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Released its monthly U.S. Factory Orders report. New orders for U.S. manufactured goods fell 1.6% month-over-month (MoM) in January after a 1.7% rise in December. This...
MELTING RECESSION WORRIES
Tuesday, February 28, 2023
Last week the US Bureau of Economic Analysis released its Q4 2022 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. The economy, after two-quarters of contraction in Q1 and Q2 2022, recovered with economic growth in the remaining two quarters of...
ECONOMIC LANDING ZONE
Wednesday, February 15, 2023
Analysts predicted a rough economic landing in 2023, partly due to the Federal Reserve's rate hike policy. However, the Fed's assessment was more precise than expected. This Brief examines the chances of a gentle landing or no landing at all...
AFTER THE STORM
Wednesday, February 8, 2023
US economy will recover like spring after winter. Past challenges prove its resilience. Weekly Brief & podcast discuss history and future growth trends...
BENEFITS AT THE BOTTOM
Wednesday, February 1, 2023
There are many benefits of being at the bottom of a market cycle vs. at the top. At the top, when economic and stock market conditions are so favorable that it starts to get scary. One cannot stop wondering when these good times end. I...
US SOFT LANDING
Wednesday, January 25, 2023
Investors have been on pause since early 2022 with their new investments to determine when the Federal Reserve rate hikes will cease. More importantly, they are concerned that higher interest rates will drive the US economy into a...
PLANNING TO WIN
Wednesday, January 18, 2023
It's a new year and a good time to start planning and taking steps towards your goals. This article shares lessons learned on the SEC Football field that helped to outsmart Nick Saban, the coach of Alabama's team.
LISTEN TO THE FED'S
Wednesday, January 11, 2023
In February 2018, Jerome Powell took office as the 16th Chairman of The Federal Reserve. He had a goal to improve the Fed's communication with the investment marketplace. Starting in January 2019, he began holding press conferences...
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