Weekly BriefNovember 19, 2025•4 min read
Today marks the release of the 2nd Edition of Physicians’ Guide to Wealth on Amazon.
And despite its title, this book is not just for doctors. It’s for anyone who wants to build wealth, understand financial markets, and achieve financial independence.
One major enhancement in this edition is the addition of six new chapters dedicated to economic cycles—patterns that have repeated, uninterrupted, since the late 1800s. Anton identifies a consistent repetition of only two key macro cycles, each lasting an average of 15 – 17 years.
• Expansion/Growth
• Contraction/Assimilation.
These cycles have shaped U.S. economic history and the stock market for more than three centuries, and understanding them is essential for making smarter investment decisions, avoiding major losses, and accumulating lasting wealth. Without this perspective, building wealth is like driving cross-country with a blacked-out windshield—you might eventually reach your destination, but not without unnecessary damage along the way. Institutional managers understand and rely on these cycles daily. You should, too.
To illustrate the power of understanding historical patterns, consider the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. When the world confronted a once-in-a-century viral outbreak, we looked back to the Spanish Flu of 1917–1919. That pandemic infected 500 million people—about a third of the global population—and caused an estimated 20–50 million deaths across four major waves. Yet once public health authorities determined the worst was over, the U.S. economy and stock market entered the Roaring Twenties, with the DJIA soaring 300% from 1920 to 1929.
So, when the media in 2020 warned of economic collapse, history offered a different story—one of resilience, recovery, and eventually, new market highs after severe crises.
When the S&P 500 dropped 34% in just 34 days between February 19 and March 23, 2020, our co-portfolio manager, Nyle Bayer, and I researched every comparable period going back more than 100 years.
The conclusion was clear:
Hold positions, stay disciplined, and rebalance at the bottom—because U.S. markets always bottom and eventually recover.
At what we determined to be the low point of the selloff, we increased allocations in our growth portfolios to companies positioned to benefit from stay-at-home mandates—Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Chipotle (CMG), Visa (V), and others. We began rebalancing on March 26, remarkably close to the market bottom.
These companies went on to post historic rebounds for 2020:
•S&P 500:+66.32% -purple line
•Visa:+45.43% -orange line
•Amazon:+88.76% -blue line
•Apple:+131.10% -green line
•Chipotle:+144.40% -magenta line
Later in the year, as restrictions eased, we shifted into companies positioned to benefit from reopening—Cheesecake Factory, United and American Airlines, Marriott, Expedia, and others. Our ETF allocations in S&P 500 (VOO, SPY) and NASDAQ funds (XLK, QQQ) also rallied strongly.
While many investors sold in fear after hearing worst-case scenarios on major networks and social media, our historically informed approach shifted our posture from defensive to opportunistic—producing strong returns in 2020 and 2021.
A single look at the Spanish Flu followed by the Roaring Twenties could have helped many investors stay the course. Yet throughout early 2020, we never once heard financial experts or media outlets reference the market rebound of the 1920s. No question, our phones were ringing off the hook (proverbially speaking, since they neither ring nor are on a hook) as accounts fell 3%–5% per day.
Had we sold, we would have locked in losses and missed one of the most powerful rebounds in market history.
Instead, 2020 became an exceptional year for our client portfolios.
2020 Annual Returns
• NASDAQ:+48.64%
• S&P 500:+16.26%
• DJIA:+7.25%
• S&P Mid Cap 400:+11.81%
• S&P Small Cap 600:+9.57%
Returns from March 24, 2020, to Dec 31, 2020
• NASDAQ:+73.75%
• S&P 500:+53.48%
• DJIA:+47.82%
• S&P Mid Cap 400:+70.98%
• S&P Small Cap 600:+72.32%
Even with continuing global concerns — inflation, geopolitical tensions, Ukraine war, tariffs, political uncertainty, government shutdown — the market has continued its multi-year rally. Not surprisingly to us, the original Roaring Twenties lasted nine years after the Spanish Flu.
Major Index Performance: Jan 1, 2020 – Sept 30, 2025
• NASDAQ:+151.8%
• S&P 500:+106.0%
• DJIA:+62.0%
• S&P Mid Cap 400:+57.9%
• S&P Small Cap 600:+41.5%
Many investors suffered avoidable losses during this period, driven by fear and negative media narratives. History offered guidance. Those who ignored it paid the price.
Beyond market history, this book covers practical financial planning actions, items, navigating and profiting during economic Expansion and Contraction cycles, maximizing retirement plans, developing your family investment policy, and how to prepare your estate plan.
The first half focuses on building and protecting wealth through market cycles.
The second half focuses on retirement planning and enjoying what should be the most fulfilling years of your life. Anton also outlines common reasons many people fail to achieve financial independence and how to avoid those pitfalls.
Buy the book.
Our Weekly Updates and Podcasts offer timely insights, but this book delivers the foundational principles and action steps Anton has developed over 30 years as a financial and investment advisor. These are strategies designed to help you build wealth, protect your assets, and reach true financial independence.
Anton Bayer
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