Weekly Brief
Jobs, Jobs, and More Jobs
I can’t remember any time in my lifetime the extreme abundance of jobs. Almost everywhere I go, there are “Help Wanted” signs in business windows, billboards advertising signing bonuses, and even messages of “We’re Hiring!” on the sides of trucks. Apparently, all the...
More Bad News That is Good
Yesterday the July S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasers Management report was revised to 52.2 from 52.3, indicating that factory orders have continued declining since early summer and are now at the slowest pace since June 2020.Econoday had this commentary on the...
The Market is not the Economy
It’s hard to think of a better example of the “the stock market is not the economy” than what has transpired over this past month, as an extended list of poor economic data was published. The biggest headline by far was that inflation rose by 9.1% in June, which was...
Bad News is Good
Yesterday, the National Association of Home Builders index reported its second largest one-month decline since the massive decline experienced in March 2020. The Home builder index dropped to 55 and has been steadily declining since its peak in December 2020. July was...
Deciphering the CPI
Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released June’s Consumer Price index (CPI), a measure of the change in the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. The CPI increased another 1.3% in June, following May’s increase...
Next Housing Boom or Bust
As we have written extensively in this Brief, consumer spending is the backbone of this economy. Consumer spending represents over 66% of all financial transactions in the country and is a dominant factor in the health and prospects of economic growth.Well Kept Wallet...
Jerome Powell the Giant Slayer
Since late last year, Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, has become the giant slayer attacking the formidable giant of hyper-inflation. His one goal is to bring this giant to his knees and slow its impact on society. His primary strategy is suffocating...
Perspectives
Consumer perspectives of the economy are very dire. In fact, last week, consumer sentiment on their near-term view of their financial conditions dropped to the lowest level since the 1940s when the University of Michigan began taking this survey. The University of...
Investing During a Recession
In 2021, everyone was a professional investor. Uber drivers had hot stock tips; anonymous Twitter profiles dolled out crypto takes, chants of "stocks only go up" reverberated through high school hallways, meme stocks became a thing, etc. Unfortunately, I couldn't...
Identifying Market Bottoms
Worknik has a good description of a contrarian. They define a contrarian as: 1. Noun: One who takes a contrary view or action, especially an investor who makes decisions that contradict prevailing wisdom, as in buying securities that are unpopular at the time. 2....
Lemonade from Lemons
The Saigon 1965 new Armed Forces Radio Service DJ, played by Robin Williams in Good Morning Vietnam, would be right in place today as a stock market commentator. “Gooood Morrrning CNBC! Today’s stock market forecast is hot and s%#tty! Tomorrow probably more hot and...
New Market Lows, Buffet Buys
More negative news was released last week by the University of Michigan of their consumer’s sentiment report. Consumers are getting discouraged despite strong employment and continued wage growth matching inflation. The report indicated consumer sentiment fell to 59.1...
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